Fun starts after the jump.
Sunday (Early)
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers: Is this going to be a Giants-Seahawks situation? No, it's not, for three reasons: 1) St. Louis might actually be worse than Seattle right now, 2) Green Bay is much, much better than the Giants, and 3) Green Bay has what scientists are calling "Aaron Rodgersitis" a condition where Aaron Rodgers is so fucking good that teams have no chance of beating the Packers. So yea, easiest game of the week to pick. Even the Football Ranter can't reverse mortal lock this one for the Rams. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Normally I wouldn't endorse giving any team 14 points, since it's not easy to blow out even bad teams in the NFL. However, at Lambeau, this game could (and probably should) end 500-0. Bet the Packers (-14). Green Bay 41-10.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers: I really don't have a clue what to think about the Steelers. They spend most of the year looking lost out on the field, then bomb out Tennessee at home to shut down my gambler pick of the week last week. This team is inconsistent, but what they have shown is that they'll find a way to beat bad teams. Their losses: at Baltimore, at Houston. Their wins: at Indy, vs. Seattle, vs. Tennessee. What does this tell us? They can beat bad teams and they can win at home. Well, they're playing a bad team at home -- equation solved. Degenerate Gambler Angle: The Steelers have won BIG at home twice now (vs. Seattle and Tennessee). Am I taking them to win big again? Nope! Chuck Testa. The Jaguars are turrible, no question. But the Steelers have just been too inconsistent to keep blowing teams out, even at home. I liked this spread if it were 7 or 8 points, not at 12. Take the Jaguars (+12). Pittsburgh 26-16.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: No one can forget what Mike Vick did to this defense last November when he went beast mode and put up 400 bazillion fantasy points. But these two teams are vastly different from what they were 11 months ago. The Redskins actually have a real defense and the Eagles keep killing themselves with brutal mistakes. Does the trend stop here? Yes and no. Are the Eagles going to make some bad mistakes? Absolutely. Are they going to pull out a close win? Absolutely. The Redskins are without DeAngelo Hall this week (who actually isn't very good anyway, but is presumably better than whoever they have behind him), and they just don't have the horses on offense to run with Vick and the Eagles, for whom this is a playoff game. Slip to 1-5 and they have to win 10 straight to make it. I'll bet on the desperate team 9 times out of 10. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Do I trust the Eagles to win by more than three on the road against a good defense? Now I may be an idiot, but there is one thing I am not, sir, and that, sir, is an idiot. Take the 'Skins (+3). Philadelphia 27-26.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions: If you had told me two months ago that this would be a matchup of two playoff teams, I would have gone to your house, slapped your mother, pissed on your couch, and then lit myself on fire. But uhh...here we both sit, so thank god no one told me that two months ago. But back to who's going to win -- I like the Lions here for two reasons. First, they have the QB advantage (Stafford >> Alex Smith), and second, they're the home team. The potential is here for an upset, but I like Stafford's ability to get the Lions a win. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Detroit giving up 4 points is a really tough line. However, given San Fran's defensive ability, there's huge upset potential here, so I'll take San Fran and the points (+4). Detroit 23-20.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: As I said last week when I
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: Blech. I won't waste time here: the Colts are very bad and lost a terrible game to the Chiefs at home last week. They now have to go on the road against a conference opponent. C-Paint has looked much better, but the Bengals are absolutely going to win this game. Degenerate Gambler Angle: I like the Bengals, but I don't like them enough to take them over ANYONE by 7 points, even at home. Take the Colts (+7). Cincinnati 23-17.
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants: Let me get this out of the way now: I fucking hate the New York Giants. If their team bus fell off a cliff and tumbled into a crocodile infested river, I would be completely fine with that. But it doesn't make me a bad person, it's just about revenge. Here's a video of what the Giants did to me last week. Now back to the game they have to play this week against the Buffalo Bills. The Giants will likely be without Justin Tuck again, and as I said last week, this defense is sloppy garbage without him. They won't be able to stop Ryan Fitzpatrick or Fred Jackson. That being said, the Bills probably won't be able to stop the Giants either, and the Giants are coming off a terrible loss at home against the Seachickens. They'll be out for blood. This is going to be a close one, folks. But believe it or not, I like the G-Men to bounce back, especially since they usually play to the level of their competition. That results in a ton of close games. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Admittedly, I liked this spread more at 3.5, but you know the rules, take the better team and the points -- Buffalo (+3). New York 31-30.
Sunday (Late)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: Texans without Super Mario or Andre Johnson? No thanks. Expect Joe Flacco to have a fun time slinging the rock around. Not to mention, the Texans are traveling after a deflating home loss to the Raiders -- no chance they're emotionally ready to take on the Ravens D. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Eight points is a very big spread, but the Ravens debacled the Steelers at home earlier this year, and I believe the Steelers are better than a Mario Williams/Andre Johnson-less Texans squad. Take the Ravens (-8). Baltimore 34-17.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders: This one is easy. Cleveland is shitty. The Raiders are varying degrees of less shitty, depending upon who you ask. The Raiders are at home and coming off a huge road win over the Texans, so I expect them to keep the gravy train rolling against the pitiful Browns. Degenerate Gambler Angle: This is a tough one to bet, as asking the Raiders to beat anyone by a touchdown is a dicey proposition. Considering the fact that Oakland's defense isn't very good and the Browns have had two weeks to prep for this game, I think they'll cover. Take the Browns and the points (+6.5). (REVERSE MORTAL LOCK WARNING: The Browns always fuck me over. They'll probably do it in dramatic fashion too, allowing a 60+ yard S-Jank field goal to put them down 7 points with a minute or two left, then be unable to score to let Oakland cover. Calling it now.) Oakland 22-19.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots: Hmm...Dallas on the road with two weeks to prep for New England is very tempting. Plus you have to think they'll be able to put up serious points on New England's atrocious pass D. But, doesn't matter, had sex. New England doesn't seem to lose at home and I don't think the 'Boys can play a clean enough game to take full advantage of New England's defense. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Sure, go ahead, bet against Tom Terrific if you want to. But I'll be swimming in the pool of money that I've made off betting on Tom Brady. Take the Pats (-6.5). New England 38-27.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Who the hell are the Bucs? Can they score? Do they have a defense? Are they bigger than a bread box? I don't have answers to any of these questions. Fortunately, the only question that matters here is: Is Drew Brees healthy and the QB of the Saints? Yes. Yes he is. Degenerate Gambler Angle: This is a tough one, because the Bucs are headed home after a demoralizing loss against the 49ers to take on a division rival. Plus the Saints are playing the second of back to back road games against division teams. So what does it mean?? Take the Bucs to cover. I wish this spread were higher though, don't bet your wife on this game. Tampa Bay (+4.5). New Orleans 28-24.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Sweet mother of god, this is the "I just puked in my trashcan trying to pick this game" game of the week. Who do you like, The Problem Lite or Diabeetus? No matter who wins, we lose. I'll go for Chicago who will be looking for blood at home after being embarrassed in Detroit this past week. Degenerate Gambler Angle: The Bears will win, and I believe they'll cover because of a special teams and/or defensive touchdown. But typing that sentence made me physically ill, because the Bears suck at home and relying on defense or special teams to score for you is a stupid strategy. So only bet with me if you are as crazy/stupid/as big a degenerate as I am. Chicago (-3). Chicago 24-20.
Monday Night Football
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: As a loyal Lunatic and dedicated J-E-T-S fan said recently, "Stop picking the fucking Jets! Every time you pick them to win and/or cover, they take a big dick to the ear! Pick against them or I'm going to burn your fucking house down." Well...despite that threat...I'm going to pick New York here. The Jets are coming off three ugly losses and have been in the papers all week with ugly discord in the locker room. With all that being said, the Jets are just better than the Dolphins. I'll take the Jets pass defense and Dirty Sanchez over the shitty Matt Moore and the non-existent Miami pass D, especially at home. All three of the J-E-T-S losses have been on the road- they'll take care of business at home. Degenerate Gambler Angle: The Jets will win, but it's unlikely that they'll cover a seven point spread. Walterfootball has a great stat about the previous matchups between the Jets and 'Fins, and they're almost always close games. Take the Dolphins and the points (+7). New York 24-18.
Until next time, Lunatics.
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