Good morning, Lunatics. Check out the Football Ranter game picks for week 5 including the degenerate gambler angles. All lines are accurate as of this morning.
Fun starts after the jump.
Sunday (Early)
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: I just puked in a trashcan trying to pick this game. This is a mirror match- two teams with decent defenses and identically turrible offenses. Why take Kansas City? Because they're the slightly better team by the numbers and the only thing less appetizing than picking The Problem to win on the road is picking C-Paint to win anywhere. Degenerate Gambler Angle: You know the rule, Lunatics -- always take the better team and the points. Take KC +2 here. Kansas City 16-13.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: I have been burned picking the Vikings so many fucking times this year, I feel like a meth addict that just can't say no. But this is the week where the Problem Lite finally gives me the hit I've been so desperately seeking! Minnesota will win this home game against the shitty Cardinals. Why? Because the Cardinals are coming off a deflating loss against the Giants at home and if the Vikes are going win a game this year it will be a) at home and b) against a team just as shitty as they are. VI-KINGS! VI-KINGS! Degenerate Gambler Angle: The Vikes are much improved now that Kevin Williams is back. They're not equivalent to the Cards, so giving up 3 points at home doesn't bother me. Take the Vikings -3. Vikings 23-17.
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills: This is a huge statement game for the Eagles, and that makes it a very difficult game to call. Back to back brutal home losses against NFC opponents, then going on the road against an AFC opponent normally makes this very easy to pick the Bills. However, Buffalo is overrated right now (they have the 27th ranked defense in the NFL) and they won't be able to stop Vick. Meanwhile the Eagles NEED to win this game. Starting out 1-4 essentially ends their season as they would have to go 10-1 down the stretch to lock up a playoff spot. But despite all that, I picked the Bills on the radio and I have to stick with them. They win a close shoot out at home. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Based upon the statistics, I'm not convinced Buffalo is the better team. Despite that, they're at home after a tough loss to an AFC opponent. Take the Bills and the points (+3). Buffalo 34-31.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: The Texans have the 10th ranked defense in the NFL, but they're 18th against the run. Oakland is 29th against the run. Without Andre Johnson in the lineup, I'm gonna go ahead and call this the POUND THE ROCK matchup. Expect to see huge games for Arian Foster and Run DMC. Still, I think the Texans are in for a let down at home after barely beating the Steelers at home last week. The Raiders win this on some sort of absurd S-Jank field goal. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Houston is better than Oakland, but without Andre Johnson they're going to struggle to move the ball through the air. That means this game is likely to be decided by a field goal one way or the other- take Oakland +5.5 and give yourself some cushion. Oakland 23-20.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: There are a lot of reasons to like Carolina here- unfortunately none of them are "they have Drew Brees at quarterback." The Panthers defense is pathetic, this is like giving a tiger a pinata. That's not to minimize the ability of Cam Newton, who has more or less made it his personal mission to make the Football Ranter look like an asshole for saying he was the 20th best player in the 2011 NFL draft. Nonetheless, this one is all Saints. Degenerate Gambler Angle: It took a last second TD for the Panthers to cover the spread against the inferior Bears. They won't cover against the Saints (-6.5). New Orleans 31-23.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: I don't want to waste any more time writing about this shitbasket matchup than you want to reading about it. Cincy has a good defense. Jacksonville blows goats. Cincinnati picks up a win on the road. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Why is Jacksonville favored in this game? Take the better team (Cincinnati) and the points (+2). Cincinnati 24-13.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are not a good football team right now. They've got a limpdick defense and an offensive line that couldn't protect a tank. Is it possible they'll get it up for this game? Sure. Is it likely? Nope! Chuck Testa. Degenerate Gambler Angle: PICK OF THE WEEK: Bet your house! Bet your car! Bet the farm! Bet your wife's jewelry! Bet your kids college fund! Don't have a college fund? Bet your kids! No jewelry? Sell your wife, then use the money you made to bet this game! This line says that these teams are evenly matched. They are not. Tennessee is much better than Pittsburgh right now. I sound like a broken record, I know, but there are some really strange lines this week. Take the better team (Tennessee) and the points (+3). Tennessee 23-17.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: Another one I won't waste much time on. The Seachickens coming east to play a 1pm game? They're going to lose -- the only question is by how much. Degenerate Gambler Angle: This is actually a more difficult game to pick than it should be for two reasons: 1) the Giants tend to play down to their competition, which is fine when the spread is small but not when it's -9.5, and 2) the Giants defense simply isn't the same when Justin Tuck does not play (he's listed as doubtful for this game). The Giants still probably win by 10 because Seattle is terrible and they're coming east, but a smaller spread would have made this the pick of the week. Go with the G-Men (-9.5), but don't bet it huge. New York 24-13.
Sunday (Late)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: OK, OK, OK! The fucking Niners are fucking better than I fucking thought they were. Go fuck yourselves. I'm still picking against them this week, so ha! HATE-HATE-HATE-HATE! But seriously, at some point, they're going to stop getting lucky breaks from teams that are dying to hand them games. Why on earth would I say that the Bucs, who lead the league in attempted games given away, will beat them? Well, as you may know, I am totally and completely insane -- like Mickey Rooney. Regardless, it'll be a close win for TB. Degenerate Gambler Angle: This is going to be a very low scoring game that may be decided by a special teams and/or defensive touchdown. San Fran's o-line is awful though, and they won't be able to run or throw. Even if they win, they won't cover -- take Tampa Bay (+3). Tampa Bay 13-10.
New York Jets at New England Patriots: The week 5 Superbowl. The J-E-T-S have looked A-W-F-U-L the last two weeks, which isn't a good sign headed into this game. The Pats have the NFL's top passing attack, the Jets have the NFL's #2 passing defense. Those two things will cancel each other out and make this a battle of the Jets #28 ranked passing attack (by passer rating) against the Patriots dead last in the NFL passing defense. In truth, I have no fucking clue who is going to win this game. But betting against Tom Terrific rarely goes well, so I'm taking the Patriots, especially at home. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Regardless of who wins, this is going to be a close game. The Jets always get their shit together for a Superbowl versus the Patriots and this will be a close game. Bet the J-E-T-S +8. Hopefully you were able to lock this line in earlier in the week when it was as high as Jets +9.5 New England 26-24.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: This could be a let-down game for the Chargers. This team is overdue to blow a game against a bad team. Why not on the road against a division rival? Especially without Vincent Jackson playing. Regardless, the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos who really can't stop anyone and have issues scoring. I'll take the Chargers even on the road. Degenerate Gambler Angle: No matter what I do with the Chargers, they fuck me over. They're like the Cleveland Browns lite for the degenerate gambler. If I wasn't such a degenerate, I would refuse to bet this game. Fortunately for all of you, I'd sell my own children for credit to bet games...or for some rock. Same difference. Was there a point to all of this? Oh right. San Diego is going to win this game by four points and just cover the spread. Take San Diego (-3.5). San Diego 23-17.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons: I can't believe I'm going to say this, but here goes: the Packers are going to lose this game. They have no business losing it. They are a better team than the Atlanta Falcons and this is the Sunday Night game, so they won't be overlooking the Falcons. Every shred of data I have says the Pack will win here except one: Atlanta is a different team at home. The Football Ranter's gut tells him the Dirty Birds pull off the major upset here. Degenerate Gambler Angle: At the Falcons play inspired football at the Georgia Dome. Even if they don't win, I would be willing to risk my rent that GB doesn't cover. Take the Dirty Birds +6. Atlanta 31-29.
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: Lions good. Detroit bad. Detroit at home, good. Chicago anywhere, bad. Ndamukong Suh may actually impregnate Jay Cutler, let him give birth, then eat his children in front of him. Chicago is going down and going down hard. Degenerate Gambler Angle: Da Bears D hasn't been Da Bears D for some time now. Plus they needed two non-offensive TD's to beat the lowly Panthers last week at home. No way they go into Detroit and cover the spread unless Matthew Stafford gets injured. Take the Detroit (-5). Detroit 26-16.
Check back next Saturday for the Football Ranter Week 6 picks. Until next time, Lunatics.
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